The Statistical Case for Economic Populism

The voices that say the Democrats must behave more like Big Business Republicans in order to win elections are many. They call this "moderation" - but there is little evidence it works (in fact, there is far more compelling evidence that it does the opposite). As columnist Bob Kuttner has noted, "for every Evan Bayh" who uses this "moderate" model to win a red state "there are two or three Byron Dorgans" - who use economic populism to do the same. And one interesting statistic shows how this actually works.

Pundits are quick to claim that when Independent Congressman Bernie Sanders crushes his Republican opponents, he does so only because Vermont is a "blue" state. But consider this incredible statistic from over at Paperwight's blog:

"Sanders won in 47 of the 48 Vermont precincts in which George Bush beat John Kerry. In all but three of those, Sanders beat the Republican candidate (his closest competitor) by double digit margins: he won ten precincts by more than 20%, fourteen precincts by more than 30%, and eleven precincts by more than 40%. Remember, those are precincts where George Bush won while Sanders split his vote with two non-Republican candidates, and Sanders didn't just beat his Republican opponent. Sanders destroyed his Republican opponent."

In other words, the progressive populist Sanders is not only cleaning up in the blue parts of Vermont, but in the very red parts of Vermont as well (and just head up to the Northeast Kingdom if you don't think there are very red parts of Vermont). Using economic populism on issues like trade and wages, he is able to attract culturally conservative, working-class voters to his side. That is what makes him such a force in his state - and what can make other Democrats more successful in their own.