Changing Washington, D.C.

Last month, The Nation editorialized about the War in Iraq and the upcoming Senate elections noting that who wins elections this fall could send a major sign to Washington and shake up the Senate and the Democratic Party.

The editors wrote: "But if Sherrod Brown wins in Ohio, where Republican Senator Mike DeWine is vulnerable, and Independent Representative Bernie Sanders wins Vermont's open seat, as now seems likely, two of the House's most articulate and savvy antiwar voices will be heard in the Senate. And if they are joined by others, like Minnesota's Wetterling, Montana's Tester or Rhode Island's Matt Brown, the Democratic leadership will get the message loud and clear: It's time to get out of Iraq."

Only a month has gone by, but major events have happened in two of these five races. In Minnesota, Patty Wetterling has dropped out of the U.S. Senate race. That's unfortunate. Although I've heard good things about the remaining Democratic frontrunner, Amy Klobuchar, Patty Wetterling gave progressive issues a strong voice.

But in Rhode Island, things are taking a turn in the exact opposite direction. The race there is between Sheldon Whitehouse, a former Attorney General, and Matt Brown, the current Secretary of State. Whitehouse has raised more money, but Brown, who has run a far more progressive campaign, is the one showing momentum. Where only months ago, Matt Brown was losing to Whitehouse by a 2-1 margin, Brown now leads in the primary 31-25. And where Whitehouse used to be considered the stronger challenger to Lincoln Chafee, Rhode Island voters are now signaling a different choice.

Brown comes within two points of defeating Chafee (38-36) while Chafee beats Whitehouse by 6 points (40-34). Additionally, while Chafee's numbers are moving up against Whitehouse, they've actually been falling against Brown and his bold agenda.

Meanwhile, the polls have been indicating strange things in Montana, where Rasmussen Reports released a poll last month showing Senate President Jon Tester evenly tied with Senator Conrad Burns while Burns beat State Auditor John Morrison by 3 points. Tester and Morrison are the two mainstream candidates considered to have strong potential heading into this fall's campaign against Burns. But like other centrist candidates across the country, Morrison has been placing his primary bets almost exclusively on an electability card.

It became clear following the release of the Rasmussen poll that Morrison's camp was shook up as they released an internal poll showing him beating Tester 39-20 in the primary with most of the electorate still undecided. Given that Morrison has won statewide office twice and Jon never, those numbers were actually weaker than many of us expected.

Jon Tester's main problem to date has been disappointing fundraising numbers. Despite those numbers, poll after poll has shown him making incredible gains against Senator Burns using a progressive message. He's also taken steps to strengthen his fundraising operation in recent months, stepping it up with national fundraisers and a larger in-state fundraising operation including some people with experience posting large numbers (his new in-state fundraiser comes to Montana from Paul Hackett's Senate campaign, which nearly outpaced Representative Sherrod Brown for fundraising in Q4).

Patty Wetterling's departure is a disappointment, but the signs from Rhode Island are positive in that they show that sometimes message and excitement do mean more than fundraising. Montana's still the wildcard of these races.

FULL DISCLOSURE: I used to work for Jon Tester. I no longer do.

--Matt Singer

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